Visa predicts 2.4% global growth as online shopping rises

Visa's midyear global economic outlook forecasts 2.4% growth in the world economy in 2026, with rising business investment offsetting pressure from higher energy prices.

Visa Business and Economic Insights said households are under strain as energy costs squeeze budgets, but consumer spending has not fallen sharply. Discretionary spending remains relatively steady as shoppers adjust their behaviour and seek lower prices rather than pull back.

That adjustment is increasingly happening online. The outlook says digital commerce is giving consumers more ways to compare prices and switch to cheaper alternatives, helping restrain inflation amid higher living costs.

The effect is no longer limited to major metropolitan areas. Across nearly 600 smaller or peripheral cities analysed by the group, online adoption rose from about 31% before the pandemic to 56%, extending the reach of eCommerce into communities that previously had lower digital shopping activity.

The report cited Bern, Switzerland, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, as examples of places where online shopping has risen sharply since 2019. In markets with higher online penetration, stronger price competition has been associated with lower inflation, according to Visa.

Consumer shifts

The outlook presents consumer resilience as one of three main forces shaping the global economy. It describes current spending patterns as an adjustment phase, with households changing how they shop while continuing to spend in selected discretionary categories.

That points to a more moderate consumer backdrop than in the earlier years of the decade, when sharp swings in demand and prices played a larger role in inflation. The softer starting point should help limit price rises even as energy costs remain a burden, the report said.

Wayne Best, Chief Economist, Visa, linked those spending patterns to changes in shopping behaviour.

"As digital commerce continues to reshape how people shop and pay, consumers are finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check," Best said.

Investment cycle

The second major support identified in the report is a broad rise in business spending. Visa said the global economy has entered its strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010, with capital expenditure rising simultaneously in the US, the EU and China.

Those three economies are investing in artificial intelligence, cleaner energy systems, and supply chains that companies consider strategically important. The report argues that this synchronised spending is helping to sustain overall growth even as households face higher bills.

Best said the scale of corporate spending stood out in the current economic backdrop. "We're also seeing business investment rising sharply, with companies building out AI, clean energy and stronger supply chains at levels we haven't seen since 2010-a trend that is helping support global growth," Best said.

As investment feeds into employment, it should also support household spending, according to Visa. The report presents that link between industrial spending and labour markets as a key reason the wider economy has continued to expand despite fresh cost pressures.

Digital effect

The report places digital commerce at the centre of the inflation story. By widening access to price comparison and increasing the visibility of lower-cost alternatives, online channels can intensify competition among merchants, particularly in places where in-person retail has historically offered fewer options.

In that view, the growth of eCommerce in smaller cities matters because it broadens the number of consumers who can respond quickly to price changes. Visa said this has extended the inflation-constraining effect of digital commerce beyond established online shopping hubs.

Visa Business and Economic Insights said its conclusions are based on Visa transaction data, economic modelling, and analysis of broader trends in consumer behaviour and digital commerce. The team publishes research on macroeconomic conditions, spending patterns and changes in payments.

The report identifies three forces shaping the current environment: consumers adjusting rather than collapsing, digital commerce acting as a relief valve on prices, and a wave of business investment helping the global economy absorb the shock of higher energy costs.

Its clearest numerical forecast is 2.4% global economic growth in 2026.